In Xi and Putin’s ‘no limits’ partnership, a growing asymmetry
China is a rising power, while Russia is not just in decline but also dependent on China. Xi holds significant leverage due to this asymmetry
Less than a week after Xi Jinping hosted Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for what was his 25th official visit in the 25th year since the signing of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship. The summit celebrated a relationship with a long and turbulent past. Tsarist Russia was among the great predators of Imperial China’s “century of humiliation”. The Soviet Union became China’s patron after the 1949 communist revolution, only for the relationship to fracture in the Sino-Soviet split, leading Beijing to tilt towards Washington. Post-Cold War rapprochement occurred slowly, before deepening into a partnership that Xi and Putin have since elevated into one of “no limits”.
But cracks are bound to surface. China is a rising power, while Russia is not just in decline but also dependent on China. Xi holds significant leverage due to this asymmetry, visible nowhere more clearly than in Putin’s failure this week to secure a long-sought contract for a pipeline that would double Russian natural gas exports to China. The reality is that Putin needs Xi far more than the other way around, and unless Russia decides to enter into some form of reconciliation with the West, something Trump has expressed optimism about, Moscow’s dependence will deepen.
India has long bet on Russia. The military defeat to China in 1962 was a major driver of New Delhi’s tilt towards Moscow, as the US chose Pakistan as its frontline Cold War partner. The US-China rapprochement compounded India’s fears. But things are different now. A weaker Russia, a stronger China, and a mercurial US president wooing both should push India to strengthen its own capabilities. Cooperation with the US in technology and AI is a strategic necessity and India must build on that even as Russia remains a source of energy. As for China, India needs to manage a long border and a massive trade deficit. Alliances cannot substitute for the hard work of domestic reform and modernisation.
