P Chidambaram writes: 5 trends will determine future India

The distribution of economic power will be increasingly skewed in favour of the monopolists. The balance between capital and labour will continue to shift in favour of capital

I have observed social and political trends in India for many years. What appears to be a deep-running current may not be so, and may be only a passing cloud. A passing cloud can bring a welcome shower, but that is not an enduring feature of the climate.

1947 was a watershed year. Since Independence, many visible influences and trends were noticed but were short-lived; and many incipient trends that were unnoticed by most people have become enduring. For example, despite Gandhiji’s near-divine status and hundreds of dedicated Gandhians, the Gandhian way of life, ahimsa,  satyagraha, the charkha, non-violence and civil disobedience did not survive for more than a couple of decades after Gandhiji. On the other hand, few anticipated the rapid urbanisation of India, fewer noticed climate change, and still fewer understood the complex relationship between humans and science and technology.

The saying is, ‘Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future’ (Nobel laureate Niels Bohr and legendary baseball player Yogi Berra). Nevertheless, I shall dare to venture into forbidden territory. I have observed five trends that may gain strength and momentum. Much as I dislike and dread some of them, these trends seem unstoppable:

Democracy is government of the people. People are born free and have the right to many freedoms. A democratic government is a government that respects and upholds the rights of the people, and has established independent institutions that will protect and enforce the rights. Freedom House, V-Dem Institute and Reporters Without Borders (all Research Institutes) classify countries as ‘free’ or not on the basis of scores under various indicators. More and more countries have a declining score. India’s score was 77 in 2005 and has declined to 63-67. India is likely to be a mere ‘electoral democracy’ and elections will be less free and fair. The Indian people seem to be unperturbed by the declining score in return for welfare measures, better infrastructure and no challenge to an oppressive social structure. China’s score has been stuck at 9/100 for many years, but by all reports, the Chinese people are happy. India may take that path.

Several sectors of the economy are dominated by duopolies or oligopolies — air travel, telecommunications, cement, steel, power, pharmaceuticals, petroleum, defence production, mining, and retail. More sectors may go that way. Small businesses and MSMEs will become near-extinct. NGOs will be stifled. The distribution of economic power will be increasingly skewed in favour of the monopolists.  The balance between capital and labour will continue to shift in favour of capital. The distribution of income will be skewed in favour of the rich and super-rich. Income inequalities will increase, and we will be less egalitarian.

Most large cities have become cosmopolitan and a medley of languages, religions, cultures and cuisines. Many towns are following suit. Urbanisation and mass transit systems will take the trend deeper into India. No one will ‘belong’ to a place; ‘native place’ will, like the joint family, become extinct. Most people one encounters will be strangers. The circle of friends will become smaller, and relationships will be forged through devices. Conversations will be mediated by machines. No (hu)man is an island may be disproved. Transactions, not emotions, will determine relationships between humans. Sexual relations may survive because sex has benefits beyond procreation.

The line separating science and pseudoscience will vanish. As Mr Vasudevan Mukunth wrote (The Hindu, dated June 23, 2026), educational authorities will institutionalise Puranic science as science, mythology as history, ritual as technology, and an open contempt for verifiability. More IITs may be goaded to do ‘research’ into mythological stories, reincarnation and Vedic biology. Cultural revival will revolve around the reconstruction of temples and the celebration of Hindu festivals. Meat shops may be banned in several towns. Following West Bengal, other states may remove eggs from the mid-day meal scheme. Uniform civil codes will be passed in more States. Resistance to the Hindutva agenda will be broken down. More and more children and adults will be able to speak and write in only a single language, Hindi, closing more windows to growing STEM studies and the technology-driven world (until Hindi catches up with English and other languages).  Minorities — religious, linguistic, ethnic — will live in fear, wondering whether a historically plural country will have a place for their children.

The trends noted above will have enormous consequences for the 144 crore people, who will plateau at 167 crore and begin to decline. India will grow — whether at 5 per cent or more — irrespective of the government, because Indians will grow food, produce goods, and consume or export. The numbers of the rich and the super rich will increase, but many millions will be massed at the bottom of the pyramid. Those millions will experience low demand, low consumption, low standards of life and low growth. Moreover, if millions of people are excluded from participation in the story of India, on one pretext or the other, their lives will be worse. India will be less equal and more divided and angry.

You may dispute the five trends or add to or subtract from them, but you cannot deny that the direction of the country, and the trends witnessed, will determine India’s place in the world.

(Across the Aisle completes 12 years in June 2026. The author wishes to take a long break to pursue other interests. This column will now be an occasional feature in The Indian Express)