El Niño threat: South Asia braces for below-average monsoon in 2026, says climate forum

While El Niño remains one of the key factors influencing monsoon rainfall, other global phenomena could also be at play during the season, SASCOF said.

Most South Asian countries are likely to receive below-average rainfall during the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season, according to a consensus forecast released by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF).

The outlook, issued during the SASCOF-34 meet hosted by the Maldives in late April, is in line with India’s Long Range Forecast by the India Meteorological Department, which has projected seasonal rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average.

Factoring in the strong possibility of the development of El Niño, met experts from the South Asian countries said, “Below normal rainfall is most likely over South Asia during June-September, particularly over the central parts. Some areas in the north-west and north-east and extreme southern regions are likely to receive normal or above normal rainfall during this period.”

A rainfall deficit is expected across India, Pakistan, north Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Western Myanmar. Normal rainfall is likely over Afghanistan, some parts of northeast India, Myanmar, Southern and Eastern Sri Lanka, the outlook suggested.

As El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence the Southwest Monsoon, the forecast has said that El Niño, the warmer-than-usual ocean conditions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, will develop and remain so until the end of 2026. El Niño is known to suppress rainfall in the Southwest Monsoon.

While El Niño remains one of the key factors influencing monsoon rainfall, other global phenomena could also be at play during the season, SASCOF officials noted.

“However, it is important to note that ENSO conditions are not the only factor that determines the performance of the Southwest monsoon over the region. Other relevant climate drivers, such as the state of the IOD, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (Atlantic Zonal Mode), Eurasian land heating, and others, are also important. All these parameters collectively shape the expected state of the monsoon over the region,” SASCOF said.

The Met experts have suggested that a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole may develop during June-September, which could favour monsoon rainfall.

SASCOF is a regional climate outlook forum comprising nine South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

In addition, there are members of the World Meteorological Organization, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Korean Meteorological Administration and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for South Asia and the Pacific.

This forum exchanges weather and climate information and also works to issue a consensus statement on the Southwest and Northeast Monsoon seasons in this region.

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Most South Asian countries are likely to receive below-average rainfall during the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season, according to a consensus forecast released by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF).

The outlook, issued during the SASCOF-34 meet hosted by the Maldives in late April, is in line with India’s Long Range Forecast by the India Meteorological Department, which has projected seasonal rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average.

Factoring in the strong possibility of the development of El Niño, met experts from the South Asian countries said, “Below normal rainfall is most likely over South Asia during June-September, particularly over the central parts. Some areas in the north-west and north-east and extreme southern regions are likely to receive normal or above normal rainfall during this period.”

A rainfall deficit is expected across India, Pakistan, north Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Western Myanmar. Normal rainfall is likely over Afghanistan, some parts of northeast India, Myanmar, Southern and Eastern Sri Lanka, the outlook suggested.

As El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence the Southwest Monsoon, the forecast has said that El Niño, the warmer-than-usual ocean conditions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, will develop and remain so until the end of 2026. El Niño is known to suppress rainfall in the Southwest Monsoon.

While El Niño remains one of the key factors influencing monsoon rainfall, other global phenomena could also be at play during the season, SASCOF officials noted.

“However, it is important to note that ENSO conditions are not the only factor that determines the performance of the Southwest monsoon over the region. Other relevant climate drivers, such as the state of the IOD, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (Atlantic Zonal Mode), Eurasian land heating, and others, are also important. All these parameters collectively shape the expected state of the monsoon over the region,” SASCOF said.

The Met experts have suggested that a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole may develop during June-September, which could favour monsoon rainfall.

SASCOF is a regional climate outlook forum comprising nine South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

In addition, there are members of the World Meteorological Organization, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Korean Meteorological Administration and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for South Asia and the Pacific.

This forum exchanges weather and climate information and also works to issue a consensus statement on the Southwest and Northeast Monsoon seasons in this region.