Kerala’s birth rate has reached an all-time low: 7 takeaways

The 2024 report found the state’s crude birth rate at 9.64, down from 11.06 in 2023. CBR is the total number of live births per 1,000 people in a population during a given year. The number of live births registered in 2024 was 3,44,766, as against 3,93,231 in 2023.

Kerala’s crude birth rate (CBR) has dropped into single digits for the first time, according to the vital statistics report of 2024 published by the state economics and statistics department. The data also shows that 2023 and 2024 recorded the sharpest back-to-back annual declines in the CBR in recent decades. Here are the key numbers from the report.

1. CBR falls below 10 for the first time: The state’s CBR stood at 9.64 in 2024, down from 11.06 in 2023. CBR measures the total number of live births per 1,000 people in a population during a given year.

2. Live births drop sharply: The number of live births registered fell to 344,766 in 2024, down from 393,231 in 2023.

3. Two consecutive years of the steepest declines on record: The CBR fell by 1.42 during 2023-24, following a decline of 1.47 during 2022-23. An analysis of Kerala’s CBR since 1992 shows these are the sharpest annual declines in two consecutive years, indicating that the state’s demographic transition – and its looming population crisis – has accelerated significantly.

4. A brief post-pandemic reversal in 2022: The downward trend temporarily reversed in 2022, the year after the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown. CBR rose from 11.94 in 2021 to 12.53 in 2022, an annual increase of 0.59, before resuming its decline.

5. The trend since 1992: Kerala’s CBR was 17.67 in 1992 and stayed around that level for several years. It slipped to 16.63 by 2006 and 15.75 by 2010. The rate fell below 15 for the first time in 2016, at 14.48, before dropping again to 13.79 in 2019. It then declined by 1.02 between 2019 and 2020, and by 0.83 between 2020 and 2021.

6. A north-south divide in district-level birth rates: Alappuzha has the lowest CBR in the state at 5.28, followed by Kollam at 6.63. Central Kerala districts – Pathanamthitta, Idukki and Ernakulam – range between 9.30 and 7.69. In contrast, northern districts – Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad and Kannur – all have a CBR above 10, with Malappuram topping the list at 15.16.

7. Death rate stabilises after COVID-19 spike: Kerala’s crude death rate (CDR), which rose to 9.66 in 2021 and 9.16 in 2022 due to the pandemic, has since eased. The CDR stood at 8.77 in 2024, up slightly from 8.59 in 2023. Since 2010, when the CDR was 6.88, the figure remained largely stable until the 2021 pandemic-driven spike, after which it has shown a downward trend. At the district level, Kottayam recorded the state’s highest CDR for the second year running – 12.39 in 2024, after 12.37 in 2023 – well above the state average of 8.77, a shift from earlier years when Pathanamthitta typically recorded the highest CDR. Malappuram has the lowest CDR in the state, at 5.24.

Shaju Philip is a Senior Assistant Editor at The Indian Express, where he leads the publication's coverage from Kerala. With over 25 years of experience in mainstream journalism, he is one of the most authoritative voices on the socio-political, religious, and developmental landscape of South India. Expertise, Experience, and Authority Decades of Regional Specialization: Shaju has spent more than two decades documenting the "Kerala Model" of development, its complex communal dynamics, and its high-stakes political environment. Key Coverage Beats: His extensive reporting portfolio includes: Political & Governance Analysis: In-depth tracking of the LDF and UDF coalitions, the growth of the BJP in the state, and the intricate workings of the Kerala administration. Crime & Investigative Journalism: Noted for his coverage of high-profile cases such as the gold smuggling probe, political killings, and the state’s counter-terrorism efforts regarding radicalization modules. Crisis Management: He has led ground-level reporting during major regional crises, including the devastating 2018 floods, the Nipah virus outbreaks, and the Covid-19 pandemic response. ... Read More

Kerala’s crude birth rate (CBR) has dropped into single digits for the first time, according to the vital statistics report of 2024 published by the state economics and statistics department. The data also shows that 2023 and 2024 recorded the sharpest back-to-back annual declines in the CBR in recent decades. Here are the key numbers from the report.

1. CBR falls below 10 for the first time: The state’s CBR stood at 9.64 in 2024, down from 11.06 in 2023. CBR measures the total number of live births per 1,000 people in a population during a given year.

2. Live births drop sharply: The number of live births registered fell to 344,766 in 2024, down from 393,231 in 2023.

3. Two consecutive years of the steepest declines on record: The CBR fell by 1.42 during 2023-24, following a decline of 1.47 during 2022-23. An analysis of Kerala’s CBR since 1992 shows these are the sharpest annual declines in two consecutive years, indicating that the state’s demographic transition – and its looming population crisis – has accelerated significantly.

4. A brief post-pandemic reversal in 2022: The downward trend temporarily reversed in 2022, the year after the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown. CBR rose from 11.94 in 2021 to 12.53 in 2022, an annual increase of 0.59, before resuming its decline.

5. The trend since 1992: Kerala’s CBR was 17.67 in 1992 and stayed around that level for several years. It slipped to 16.63 by 2006 and 15.75 by 2010. The rate fell below 15 for the first time in 2016, at 14.48, before dropping again to 13.79 in 2019. It then declined by 1.02 between 2019 and 2020, and by 0.83 between 2020 and 2021.

6. A north-south divide in district-level birth rates: Alappuzha has the lowest CBR in the state at 5.28, followed by Kollam at 6.63. Central Kerala districts – Pathanamthitta, Idukki and Ernakulam – range between 9.30 and 7.69. In contrast, northern districts – Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad and Kannur – all have a CBR above 10, with Malappuram topping the list at 15.16.

7. Death rate stabilises after COVID-19 spike: Kerala’s crude death rate (CDR), which rose to 9.66 in 2021 and 9.16 in 2022 due to the pandemic, has since eased. The CDR stood at 8.77 in 2024, up slightly from 8.59 in 2023. Since 2010, when the CDR was 6.88, the figure remained largely stable until the 2021 pandemic-driven spike, after which it has shown a downward trend. At the district level, Kottayam recorded the state’s highest CDR for the second year running – 12.39 in 2024, after 12.37 in 2023 – well above the state average of 8.77, a shift from earlier years when Pathanamthitta typically recorded the highest CDR. Malappuram has the lowest CDR in the state, at 5.24.